A multitude of industry-wide factors are at play this season - as always. And it's a delicate game of tug-of-war between market forces.

The market experienced a significant downturn in 2023 due to low prices and reduced yields. But 2024 hints at a promising rebound. The current sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Positive signs of recovery exist though; all while uncertainty seems to lurk around every corner.

AUSTRALIA - Macadamia producers have forecast a crop increase of 16% compared to the previous year. Reaching about 56,000 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture. The improvement driven by favourable growing conditions and a positive grower sentiment. A smaller crop produced in 2023 has also normalised levels of kernel inventory, heading into 2024.

“2024 is looking like a better season, with good conditions experienced during flowering ... While recent rainfall in some regions will make the start of harvest a little challenging. With good growing conditions we expect to see an improvement in kernel recoveries, which is very encouraging.”

- Clare Hamilton-Bate, CEO at Australian Macadamia Society

SOUTH AFRICA - The World's largest producer of macadamia nuts, is anticipating a 14% increase in production. From 78091 tons dry-nut-in-shell last year, to 90135 tons in 2024. This would keep South Africa in the number one spot for macadamia nut production.

The Global Macadamias sales team travel has been traveling extensively over the past few months. As a prominent processor and exporter located in South Africa, they keep a close eye on market trends and sentiment. Their team visited key macadamia nut markets in regions such as Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the United States. They believe we are now entering a phase of increased stability in supply and demand. This bodes well for the future of all macadamia nut stakeholders, especially as they recover from the historic lows of 2023.

"The feedback we received was consistent: demand has increased, leading to higher prices," reports Roelof van Rooyen, Director of Global Macadamias.

Globally, the market is experiencing increased demand, particularly from the U.S., China, and Europe, leading to a general price increase of 10% to 20%. Ultimately, this depends on crack-out style, size, and quality. Similar to the situation in Australia, much of the 2023 inventory (in-shell inventory) bought by China, has made for a low starting supply. With relative scarcity and a general increase in demand, prices are starting to rise.

The Chinese demand for healthier snacks has significantly contributed to this demand. This in-shell demand has created a tighter supply for kernels, as more nuts ship as in-shell rather than processed for kernels. While reduced kernel supply increases prices... vast export quantities of in-shell could undermine local industry sustainability.

"Meeting China's demand for macadamias was positive for the industry last year as it helped to clear warehouse stocks. But over the long term South Africa needs to maintain a robust processing industry so that we are not over reliant on a single market, which in the case of China, is increasingly becoming self sufficient," cautions Shane Hartman, CEO of Global Macadamias.

KENYA - Thanks to favourable weather conditions improving both yield and quality, is expected to recover with a 12% production boost in 2024 compared to the year prior. However, with shifts in market dynamics, export policy changes have been impacting local pricing structures.

China's imports from Kenya have notably surged, growing 20.8 times in the past three years . This growth underscores Kenya's rising prominence in the international macadamia market. A significant portion of its produce being exported, with 93% of its total output being sold to overseas markets. The main export destinations include: the U.S., Germany, Netherlands, mainland China, and Hong Kong China.

Source：Internet