New estimate of South Africa’s crop
release time:
2024-12-05
The 2024 crop estimate of South Africa is revised, and the new estimate of 88,048 metric tonnes (at 3.5% moisture NIS) is significantly higher than the 83,726mt forecast in July.
This means that South Africa’s crop is now thought to have increased 12.7% over 2023’s production (78,110mt), which was itself 15.7% bigger than the 2022 crop. Only Vietnam is estimated to have experienced larger crop growth this year (15% growth over last year, with a crop of 10,350mt). Australia’s 2024 forecast remains unchanged at 50,830mt (5.0% growth over the previous year). South Africa’s production growth has been estimated by the International Nut & Dried Fruit Council to be on track to reach 150,000mt per annum by 2029. Extreme weather events earlier this year affected volumes and nut maturity at harvest leading to an estimate in July lower than the initial 92,000mt crop thought possible. The November upward revision is accompanied by optimism that further production growth is expected in 2025.
Currently, the South African industry is closely observing nut set amidst reports of hailstorms that might have a significant influence in the year ahead along with prevailing hot and dry conditions into early summer.
The expected production growth in both South Africa and Australia could see more producers and processors favouring kernel production since NIS price recovery has cooled. Muted NIS prices reflect China’s changing domestic production, processing and consumption patterns, and its bearing on the decision-makers in that arena. Meanwhile, kernel prices have shown sustained increase, and the kernel/NIS price spread has grown during 2024.
Source：Internet
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