Macadamia market trend
release time:
2025-01-25
There are reports from Kenya that government agencies have been slow to process certifications for NIS exports despite the ban on such exports not yet being reinstated. What happens in Kenya in the first quarter will compound or relieve the sense of shortages in the global market. Meanwhile, perceptions of supply shortages have been balanced with recent news from multiple sources that Chinese traders still have some NIS inventory from last year’s procurement (reportedly of Chinese and Kenyan origin) and are moving it through discounted prices this month.
Farmers, especially direct marketers, will be seeking continued recovery in NIS prices in the hope of restoring fortunes for themselves. However, if there is inventory left over after the high consumption Chinese New Year period, this may slow buyer demand in the early stages of this year.
On the kernel front, the year looks set to at least retain price levels, if not see them rise further. Traders in the United Kingdom and the EU note particularly that demand for Styles 1, 2, and 4L remains high. This will incentivise handlers to commit increasing proportions of product received from growers to kernel production. A key factor influencing prices, however, will be the restoration of consumer confidence in major consumption markets. Between 2021 and 2022, consumer confidence nosedived in the United States although there has been some recovery since then.
Consumer confidence in China also fell off a cliff in early 2022 and has remained in contractionary territory since then as the economy battles disinflation and weak consumer demand. EU consumer confidence has typically been low for a long time but has also declined further since 2022. It is currently nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Low consumer confidence, especially of the nature seen in these key markets, suggests consumers are reducing discretionary spending to focus on essential spending, discount-hunting, and savings as they have concern over the future direction of the economy. Price sensitivity for premium products like shelled macadamias may intensify under prevailing consumer sentiment unless these major economies respond to stimulus measures being implemented by fiscal and monetary authorities.
Source：Internet
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